The US agricultural equipment market showed its first signs of recovery in over a year as tractor sales rose 4.1% in September 2025, according to data from the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM). This marks the first monthly increase after 13 consecutive months of declines, offering cautious optimism to a sector that has faced prolonged headwinds.
Despite low commodity prices continuing to squeeze farmers’ margins, the uptick suggests that replacement demand and seasonal purchasing activity may finally be stabilizing. The modest rebound comes at a time when manufacturers, including Deere & Co., have signaled that 2025 represents the trough of the market before an expected rebound in 2026.
Industry Leaders See Glimmer of Optimism Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
“After challenging months of continued sales declines in the US market, this modest increase is certainly encouraging,” said Curt Blades, senior vice president of AEM, in a recent statement.
He noted that while volatility and policy uncertainty remain, the improvement aligns with harvest season dynamics and could mark the start of a gradual turnaround.
The industry continues to face structural challenges, including reduced export demand driven by trade tensions and tariffs that have curtailed shipments of soybeans, cotton, and sorghum to China. Simultaneously, tariffs on steel and aluminum have raised production costs for equipment manufacturers, further tightening margins.
Combine Sales Drop Despite Tractor Uptick
Not all segments shared in the September 2025 optimism. Sales of combines — key machines for grain harvesting — fell roughly 22% compared to the previous year, according to AEM. Analysts suggest that farmers may be prioritizing essential tractor replacements over larger capital investments as they wait for better market clarity in 2026.
2025 Viewed as Turning Point for the Farm Machinery Market
Major manufacturers, led by Deere & Co., continue to project that 2025 will represent the bottom of the current market cycle. Early indicators like the September tractor sales growth reinforce expectations that the sector may be entering a slow but steady recovery phase, supported by equipment modernization needs and post-harvest demand momentum.
Source: AEM
